Late, Too Often: Disproportionate Mortality and Late-Stage Diagnosis in U.S. Pancreatic Cancer (A Nationwide Analysis Using SEER and CDC WONDER Data)

Late, Too Often: Disproportionate Mortality and Late-Stage Diagnosis in U.S. Pancreatic Cancer (A Nationwide Analysis Using SEER and CDC WONDER Data)

Yumna Khabir , Meeran Saleem, Loveeza Usman, Soha Abbas, Bilal Abid Hayat
Dow Medical College, Karachi, Pakistan

Introduction
Pancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest malignancies in the United States, with an alarmingly low 5-year survival rate of 12.8%. Despite accounting for only 3.3% of new cancer cases in 2024, it contributes to 8.5% of all cancer-related deaths. This study evaluates trends in pancreatic cancer incidence, survival, and mortality.
Methods
Death-specific data from CDC WONDER (1999–2020) were analyzed to track age-adjusted mortality rates, while SEER data (2014–2020) provided insights into 5-year relative survival rates, stage at diagnosis, and demographic disparities.
Results:
Between 2017–2021, the age-adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer was 13.5, with an AAMR of 11.2 (2018–2022). The 5-year survival rate was 12.8%, with 51% diagnosed at a distant stage, where survival drops to 3%, while early detection at a localized stage (14%) improves survival to 44%. From 1999 to 2020, total deaths rose by over 60% (29,082 to 46,774), though AAMR remained relatively stable (10.54 to 11.07), reflecting population aging. Racial disparities were evident: Black individuals had higher distant-stage diagnoses (50.2%), while Asian/Pacific Islanders showed the best survival (14.8%). Males had higher AAMR (19.35) than females (14.72), and Louisiana recorded the highest state-level AAMR (19.32).
Conclusion
Despite modest improvements in survival, disparities persist. Strengthening surgical systems requires early detection, equitable access to care, and collaboration across health sectors. Targeted screening, culturally sensitive outreach, and data-driven reforms are key to reducing the burden of pancreatic cancer.

Keywords: Pancreatic cancer, United States, CDC WONDER, Disparity, Mortality